FC: L1 Stat Analysis

[Houdini]

One thing I find myself doing is making assumptions about how competitive (or not competitive) matches are on battle nights. So I decided to do some n00b stats on the last war to see what the experience was like in general. Are matches highly competitive? Where blow outs occurring more than 50% of the time? Is there really a skill imbalance in the community? I was curious, so here are the results.

Method:
I calculated a rating for each match played (not counting forfeits or matches without stats reported).

The rating is a simple percent difference with an additional check for close games. If the score was tied or a team lost by a single point (flag capture, kill, second, etc) the rating was 0 meaning absolute competitiveness.

Excel Formula:
W = Winning Team Score
L = Losing Team Score
=IF(ABS(W-L)<=1, 0, (W-L)/AVERAGE(W, L))

This formula rated teams on a scale of 0 to 2 where 2 is a complete routing and 0 is a tied (or almost tied game).

Example Games With Ratings:


(Win Score - Lose Score Gametype: Rating)
680 - 680 Conflict: 0
289 - 260 Occupation: 0.105
16 - 13 Extraction: 0.206
255 - 186 Occupation: .312
6 - 4 Liberation: 0.4
97 - 58 Conflict: 0.503
172 - 92 Conflict: .606
204 - 98 Conflict: .701
344 - 145 Asset: .813
139 - 52 Conflict: .910
3 - 1 Sabotage: 1
18 - 6 Extraction: 1
630 - 210 Hill 30: 1
430 - 123 Asset: 1.110
8 - 2 Liberation: 1.2
279 - 59 Asset: 1.301
7 - 1 Sabotage: 1.5
12 - 1 Liberation 1.692
10 - 0 Liberation: 2



As you can see, gametypes with lower total points scored tend to have higher ratings for a smaller absolute point difference between scores. This is why I included the rule that games that ended with a 1 point difference were considered absolutely competitive.

Now for the pretty pictures: (Note, the limits below each bar are the upper bound for that column)



http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.53.25%20AM_z pscoffb0sl.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.02.45%20AM_z psxlsbookv.png




http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.02.52%20AM_z pspvmsdjkr.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.02.58%20AM_z psrxmanram.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.03.08%20AM_z pscbcqgqt5.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.03.02%20AM_z psgmbhu5xa.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.03.18%20AM_z ps2rtynqh8.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.03.24%20AM_z psrwvcy7se.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.03.13%20AM_z psgzxxlc2w.png



http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.02.05%20AM_z psown4lfcs.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.02.17%20AM_z pspnkapgwc.png

http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a565/HoudiniBM/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-20%20at%2011.02.28%20AM_z psca8drk7q.png


Interoperate the stats as you will. How do you define a good matchup?

Is a 50 - 40 Conflict game close? (Rating .222)
Is a 5 - 2 Liberation competitive? (Rating .857)
Is a 3 - 1 Sabotage fun? (Rating 1)
Is a 15 - 9 Extraction intense? (Rating .5)

I'm not sure where we should draw the line, but now you'll have pretty pictures to back up your assertions about the matches we played last war.

Also, if you want the raw stat book go here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jx1exAAZx4wdEVw5Ynibuin7 6KwVRCfYyERioJCDfxg/edit#gid=0). If you want the excel document I put the formulas in, message me.

[Silko]

Someone get Myth to run his built in calculator to run these numbers and make sure they are accurate please.

[DronesOfCydonia]

I personally trust Houdini's calculations.

[Houdini]

I personally trust Houdini's calculations.

Thanks for the trust.

For those who want to see the numbers themselves:

Houdini's Math (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mMFhcSi3F8yL9KTAWexeSHF-WZmdQPAeiJHSd5fObTs/edit?usp=sharing)

[Breezy]

I like this Houdini

[VerbotenDonkey]

I personally trust Houdini's calculations.

I for one welcome our new Houdini Overlords.