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  1. #1
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    FC: L1 Stat Analysis

    One thing I find myself doing is making assumptions about how competitive (or not competitive) matches are on battle nights. So I decided to do some n00b stats on the last war to see what the experience was like in general. Are matches highly competitive? Where blow outs occurring more than 50% of the time? Is there really a skill imbalance in the community? I was curious, so here are the results.

    Method:
    I calculated a rating for each match played (not counting forfeits or matches without stats reported).

    The rating is a simple percent difference with an additional check for close games. If the score was tied or a team lost by a single point (flag capture, kill, second, etc) the rating was 0 meaning absolute competitiveness.

    Excel Formula:
    W = Winning Team Score
    L = Losing Team Score
    =IF(ABS(W-L)<=1, 0, (W-L)/AVERAGE(W, L))

    This formula rated teams on a scale of 0 to 2 where 2 is a complete routing and 0 is a tied (or almost tied game).

    Example Games With Ratings:


    (Win Score - Lose Score Gametype: Rating)
    680 - 680 Conflict: 0
    289 - 260 Occupation: 0.105
    16 - 13 Extraction: 0.206
    255 - 186 Occupation: .312
    6 - 4 Liberation: 0.4
    97 - 58 Conflict: 0.503
    172 - 92 Conflict: .606
    204 - 98 Conflict: .701
    344 - 145 Asset: .813
    139 - 52 Conflict: .910
    3 - 1 Sabotage: 1
    18 - 6 Extraction: 1
    630 - 210 Hill 30: 1
    430 - 123 Asset: 1.110
    8 - 2 Liberation: 1.2
    279 - 59 Asset: 1.301
    7 - 1 Sabotage: 1.5
    12 - 1 Liberation 1.692
    10 - 0 Liberation: 2



    As you can see, gametypes with lower total points scored tend to have higher ratings for a smaller absolute point difference between scores. This is why I included the rule that games that ended with a 1 point difference were considered absolutely competitive.

    Now for the pretty pictures: (Note, the limits below each bar are the upper bound for that column)

































    Interoperate the stats as you will. How do you define a good matchup?

    Is a 50 - 40 Conflict game close? (Rating .222)
    Is a 5 - 2 Liberation competitive? (Rating .857)
    Is a 3 - 1 Sabotage fun? (Rating 1)
    Is a 15 - 9 Extraction intense? (Rating .5)

    I'm not sure where we should draw the line, but now you'll have pretty pictures to back up your assertions about the matches we played last war.

    Also, if you want the raw stat book go here. If you want the excel document I put the formulas in, message me.

  2. #2
    Senior Citizen Silko's Avatar
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    Re: FC: L1 Stat Analysis

    Someone get Myth to run his built in calculator to run these numbers and make sure they are accurate please.

    REDD or BLUE Resistance comes through!
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  3. #3

    Re: FC: L1 Stat Analysis

    I personally trust Houdini's calculations.

  4. #4
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    Re: FC: L1 Stat Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by DronesOfCydonia View Post
    I personally trust Houdini's calculations.
    Thanks for the trust.

    For those who want to see the numbers themselves:

    Houdini's Math

  5. #5

    Re: FC: L1 Stat Analysis

    I like this Houdini


    "Creativity is always a leap of faith. You're faced with a blank page, blank easel, or empty stage".

  6. #6
    Senior Citizen VerbotenDonkey's Avatar
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    Re: FC: L1 Stat Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by DronesOfCydonia View Post
    I personally trust Houdini's calculations.
    I for one welcome our new Houdini Overlords.
    Joined April 2007
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